Middle powers, military AI and critical-mineral competition

The Week in Brief

While the Middle East is in the midst of a series of massive-scale security events that could change the face of the region, it is important to emphasize that other parts of the international system are exploiting the vacuum to create a new reality. The broader geopolitical picture requires consideration of several parallel developments: 'intermediate powers' are working hard to diversify their alliances and reduce their dependence on both the US and China; The technological race in artificial intelligence is reaching a turning point between military development and global regulation; and the institutional conflicts between the executive branch and the judicial systems around the world are reaching new heights, creating significant instability at the national level.

Geopolitical dynamics

A. The EU: The French president announced a doctrine of "progressive deterrence" and proposed for the first time to deploy French nuclear weapons on European soil, due to doubts about the reliability of the American umbrella. At the same time, in Denmark, the Prime Minister announced snap elections amid her popularity, after she firmly defended Danish sovereignty in the face of Trump's threats to purchase Greenland.

B. Middle Powers: Singapore's foreign minister warned that the era of global trade based on rules had ended due to power struggles, and that the country and its business market must move from passive neutrality to an active policy of strategic resilience and diversification of supply chains to survive. At the same time, Canada and India signed a historic nuclear deal ($1.9 billion for Canadian uranium supplies) and promoted free trade. The move covers a sharp diplomatic dispute between the countries (regarding the elimination of active Sikhism in 2023) and signals the desire of key countries to create a counterweight to the US and China.

C. China and the US: Beijing is expected to unveil a five-year plan focused on technological independence (chips) due to sanctions, alongside a historically low growth target (4.5%). Against the backdrop of the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, the US has delayed announcing an arms deal with Taiwan so as not to anger China. At the same time, Lithuania continues to fend off Chinese pressure and demands investments from Taiwan in return, while China is developing nuclear submarines capable of striking the US and much more difficult to detect.

Security and threats

A. AI: The Pentagon broke the rules and issued an ultimatum to Anthropic, stating that it would either allow unrestricted military use (without human oversight of attacks) of its AI model, or be designated a security risk. Hours after Trump ordered the company to be shut down, competitor OpenAI signed an agreement with the Department of Defense. At the same time, OpenAI researchers revealed that Chinese government agencies had already used their model to carry out espionage and suppression operations against opponents of the regime abroad. Against the backdrop of the struggle over technology, 128 countries have opened UN discussions on restricting autonomous weapons, while Vietnam is making regional history by passing the first comprehensive artificial intelligence law in Southeast Asia.

B. Pakistan and Afghanistan: The conflict has reached a boiling point. In response to Taliban attacks, Pakistan launched a wave of air strikes deep inside Afghanistan (Kabul and Kandahar), claiming to have killed nearly 300 militants (the UN reports 42 civilian casualties). The escalation reflects, among other things, Pakistan's fear of Kabul's rapprochement with its rival India.

C. Russia-Ukraine: Trump pressured Zelensky to end the war by summer, but some warn that this is a "trap" designed to freeze Russian funds and reopen trade. Meanwhile, Russia continues to wage shadow warfare across Europe with almost no response from the attacked parties (for example, a Russian drone flew near a French aircraft carrier in the Baltic Sea). On the other hand, European forces have seized a Russian oil tanker in the North Sea, and it has been reported that Russia has recruited hundreds of Ghanaian citizens to fight.

D. The US and Third World countries: The US is assisting Ecuador in its campaign against drug cartels and is threatening to "take over" Cuba (which has responded by announcing urgent market reforms). In Africa, the US signed a $900 million health deal with Congo (a new aid model that replaces traditional mechanisms and is also linked to mineral extraction), while imposing sanctions on the Rwandan army for arming rebels in Congo.

Economy and trade

A. Rare Earth Elements: Zimbabwe unexpectedly banned the export of rare elements in order to stop economic "leaks," a move that will have a significant impact on the global battery industry. At the same time, Canada is promoting the "Critical Minerals Buyers' Alliance" to break China's global monopoly over supply chains.

B. US and India: Following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Trump's tariffs, the US and India rushed to hold trade talks (the currency fund warned that the tariffs would fuel global inflation).

C. South Korea: After years of a total ban for national security reasons, the government has approved Google for the first time to export detailed mapping data of the country to its international servers. The compromise was reached after Google agreed with Seoul to blur military and strategic facilities on the maps to prevent the North from using the information to guide missiles. The move reflects an attempt to balance strict defense against security threats with the economic need to integrate into the global technology landscape.

D. The UK: The government has blocked student visas for citizens of Afghanistan, Sudan and other countries on the grounds of exploiting the asylum system.

Crises

A. Law and democracy: A federal judge in the US ruled that deporting immigrants to third countries (Trump's policy) is unconstitutional, a ruling that deepens the conflict between the authorities. In Hong Kong, the court overturned the conviction of pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai (although he is still serving a 20-year sentence for national security offenses). At the same time, heated and costly primaries have begun in the US, highlighting the rift in the Republican Party.

B. Changes in the political landscape: Among other things, thanks to his clever navigation of relations with the US, Colombian President Petro is enjoying a surprising 50% approval rating toward the end of his term, which may ensure his victory in the elections. In Venezuela, opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado announced her return from exile.

C. Emerging crises: In Senegal, a power struggle threatens to bring down the government over the IMF's demand for harsh austerity measures (which have jumped to 132% of GDP). In Nepal, Generation Z is taking to the streets and may elect a 35-year-old rapper who is riding a wave of protest against corruption. In Zimbabwe, the government is releasing 4,000 prisoners to calm civil unrest ahead of the president's attempt to extend his term until 2030.

Surely goodness and mercy shall follow,

The Geopolitics Lab Team