Weekly briefing 115

The Week in Brief

Washington’s illusion of agreements is shattering against renewed fire in the Middle East and a revolt in Congress; Europe’s illusion of strategic independence is collapsing with the cancellation of its flagship joint fighter-jet project; and the illusion of stability at home is burning in riots across Britain, Kashmir, and Congo.

With the great powers distracted, smaller states are taking their fate into their own hands: Zelensky is appealing directly to Putin, Armenia is risking its Russian gas lifeline, and Venezuela is building sanctions workarounds through Turkey. In a world of institutional paralysis, the extremes on both sides of the divide—from the streets of Belfast to the ballot boxes of Colombia—are the ones setting the pace.

As part of our effort to adapt to the new era, here is our dedicated chatbot (Gemini Gem), trained on our latest updates. It’s ready to answer any questions you have.

Geopolitical Dynamics

A. The Lebanon Trap and the Revolt in Congress: The declared ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon exists on paper only, as Hezbollah rejects the terms for withdrawing from the country’s south. The deadlock is wrecking the White House’s push for a broader deal with Iran (which conditions any agreement on a full ceasefire). The exchanges of blows escalated with the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter and attacks on American bases in Jordan and Bahrain that drew a U.S. response. The chaos and indecision drove the House of Representatives to a dramatic vote in which four Republicans joined the Democrats to block Trump’s war powers vis-à-vis Iran—a clear early signal of the president’s loss of control over his own party heading into the midterms.

B. Russia–Ukraine: Zelensky Goes Direct: Ukraine’s president sent a blistering letter to Putin, making clear the Russian regime will not survive the war and proposing a direct summit—while stressing explicitly that the U.S., distracted by Iran, is not needed as a mediator. The move comes amid improving Ukrainian positions on the ground and a drone blitz that set sensitive infrastructure ablaze in St. Petersburg, just as Putin was hosting a major investment conference there. Putin, for his part, responded with contempt and questioned the legitimacy of Zelensky’s rule.

C. Beijing Tries to Calm Kim Jong Un: China’s president paid a rare official visit to Pyongyang—the first in seven years—to deliver a clear “lower the flames” message to his ally. Beijing worries that Kim’s threats to expand his nuclear arsenal “exponentially,” alongside his deepening military ties with Russia (including sending troops to Ukraine), will destabilize the Korean Peninsula and invite intensified American intervention—precisely as Japan accelerates its rearmament.

Security and Threats

A. The Collapse of Europe’s Flagship Defense Project: France and Germany officially canceled the joint program to build the fighter jet meant to replace France’s Super Étendard and Rafale and Germany’s Eurofighter Typhoon (a project valued at $115.6 billion). Launched in 2017 as the backbone of European defense independence, it finally collapsed under deep disputes and commercial feuds between aerospace giants Dassault and Airbus. The cancellation leaves Europe divided and exposed—at the very peak of acute fears of Russian aggression and eroding American guarantees.

B. Poland and Lithuania on the Path to U.S. Nuclear Weapons: Warsaw and Vilnius officially confirmed advanced talks to upgrade their role in NATO’s nuclear deterrence architecture, after the U.S. administration signaled willingness to deploy such capabilities in additional European countries. The emerging model, designed to bypass objections, is not the permanent storage of bombs on their soil, but the technological and operational certification of fighter jets to carry American nuclear weapons on order.

C. Ebola Bleeds into Congo’s Terror Front: International efforts to contain the Ebola outbreak in Africa are hitting a geopolitical barrier in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Park rangers and medical teams—meant to serve as the region’s health line of defense—are under murderous attack by the ISIS-affiliated ADF terror group and entangled in fighting with the armed M23 militia, which refuses to cooperate with the central government and is abandoning the region to a humanitarian and medical disaster.

Economy, Technology and Trade

A. Taipei Tightens the Chip Chokehold on China: Taiwan is weighing formal, stricter export controls on the sale of AI chips to Beijing, in a bid to align with U.S. regulation. The move would give Taiwanese authorities legal tools against the smuggling networks (primarily of Nvidia chips) feeding China’s AI industry through “gray zones.” While Taipei hopes the step will soften Trump (who froze a $14 billion arms deal with the island), it is expected to draw aggressive sanctions from China.

B. The ‘New’ Venezuela’s Global Business Tour: Venezuela’s interim president embarked on her first international diplomatic tour since the American operation to capture the previous leader, meeting President Erdoğan in Ankara to expand trade in oil and gold. Coming immediately after her visit to India, the move signals a sophisticated strategy: courting strong states not directly identified with China’s economic bloc to build West-bypassing commercial legitimacy—without setting off alarm bells in Washington.

C. Armenia Breaks West—and Risks Energy Strangulation: Armenia’s ruling party won a crushing victory in parliamentary elections (49.8% of the vote), defeating the pro-Russian bloc. The party’s leader pledged to keep accelerating rapprochement with the U.S. and Europe, which this year included nuclear-energy agreements with Washington. In response, Putin is threatening harsh economic sanctions—an existential threat for Yerevan, given that Russia is its largest trading partner and exclusive gas supplier.

Crises and Domestic Politics

A. Pakistani Kashmir Erupts: Severe clashes erupted in Pakistan-administered Kashmir over an extreme surge in the cost of living and the central government’s chronic budgetary neglect of the region. Protesters took to the streets over the lack of basic infrastructure, and clashes with security forces have already claimed a handful of lives (despite attempts by Indian media to inflate the figures into the hundreds). The crisis underscores the vulnerability of Pakistan—a nuclear state—failing to maintain governance in its frontier regions.

B. Racial Rage and Arson on the Streets of the United Kingdom: A video from this past December, published this week—showing a white 18-year-old begging for help and dying of his wounds during a police arrest—ignited violent riots in Belfast and Southampton. Police at the time arrested the bleeding victim rather than the stabber (a British Sikh citizen since convicted of murder), because the stabber had accused the young man of racism. Far-right leader Nigel Farage seized on the incident to accuse the establishment of “two-tier policing” that discriminates against whites, fueling a wave of anti-migrant violence. This week a disabled 44-year-old Briton was also stabbed and seriously wounded in Belfast; police arrested a 30-year-old Sudanese asylum seeker on suspicion of attempted murder.

C. The Collapse of the Political Center: The internal fractures across the West are deepening. In Germany, the hottest word in politics is “Kanzlerwechsel” (a change of chancellor), after Friedrich Merz’s approval plunged to just 20% amid economic paralysis— paving the way for the far-right AfD, now leading the polls. In Colombia, the far-right candidate stunned observers by advancing to the presidential runoff against the left, plunging the country into three weeks of political tension.

“Surely goodness and mercy shall follow” (Psalm 23).

The Geopolitics Lab Team