The infrastructure of global power

The Week in Brief

The past week showed that global control is no longer measured only in borders and armies, but in maritime straits, nuclear reactors, satellites, data centers, and the capacity to build advanced systems independently. The US–Iran confrontation returned to its focal point at the Strait of Hormuz; Europe and Ukraine deepened the integration of their defense industries; and Australia and India turned uranium into an instrument of strategic alignment. Meanwhile, governments began placing the infrastructure behind artificial intelligence under direct oversight, while Germany gradually abandons fiscal caution in favor of building power. In a world where trade routes, electricity, compute, and space are becoming arenas of competition, the ability to guarantee functional continuity is becoming almost as important as military strength.

As part of our effort to adapt to the new era, here is our dedicated chatbot (Gemini Gem), trained on our latest updates. It’s ready to answer any questions you have.

Geopolitical Dynamics

A. The War of the Gates Returns to Hormuz: The fragile US–Iran ceasefire collapsed following attacks on commercial vessels, and the US renewed strikes against Iranian coastal-defense arrays and missile sites. A naval blockade was re-imposed on Iranian ports and oil terminals, while Tehran struck American targets in the Gulf states and threatened additional energy routes. Both sides still leave a door open to negotiation—but the battle over freedom of navigation has once again made the Strait of Hormuz the central risk node of the global economy.

B. Uranium for a Strategic Anchor: Australia and India completed the arrangements enabling the export of Australian uranium to India's civilian nuclear program, after more than a decade of delays over safeguards and fears of leakage into the military program. India aims to expand its nuclear power capacity to roughly 100 gigawatts by 2047, and Australia is widening its uranium export markets beyond China. The deal links India's energy needs to both countries' effort to anchor a stable strategic axis in the Indo-Pacific.

C. The Fence Comes Down, the Border Goes Digital: Britain and the EU signed the agreement settling Gibraltar's post-Brexit status, and the physical fence on the border with Spain came down after more than a century. The arrangement will ease life for some 15,000 workers who cross the border daily, but shifts much of the control to sea and air ports and expands the use of facial recognition and biometric data. The sovereignty dispute remains open—yet the agreement shows how physical borders are gradually being replaced by digital systems of surveillance and control.

Security and Threats

A. Ukraine Gets a License to Build Its Own Shield: The US and Ukraine reached a political understanding to license local production of Patriot interceptors, alongside NATO states' commitment of €70 billion in security aid through the end of 2027. Actual production will demand time, expertise, and supply chains that are not yet fully available. Even so, the decision marks a shift from aid based on limited shipments to the construction of long-term Ukrainian production infrastructure.

B. Ukraine Enters Europe's Defense Factory: The EU and Ukraine signed a defense-industrial partnership designed to expand joint production of drones and counter-drone systems by the end of 2026, and later of ballistic-missile interception systems. The move casts Ukraine not merely as a state in need of arms, but as a source of combat experience, development, and rapid production capacity. The longer the war runs, the more Kyiv integrates into the EU's industrial-military structure—without ever formally joining it.

C. Germany Goes Up to Military Space: Germany's defense ministry is advancing a military communications satellite project worth roughly €10 billion, meant to give the Bundeswehr independent command, intelligence, and communications capability from space. The program may include up to 200 satellites, with a first group expected to enter service from 2029.

Economy, Technology and Trade

A. Germany Swaps Debt Discipline for Defense Discipline: The government approved a draft 2027 budget with spending above €555 billion and new borrowing of more than €203 billion. Direct defense spending is set to reach about €109 billion—roughly €130 billion once aid to Ukraine and adjacent security domains are included. The shift marks a retreat from the fiscal caution that defined Germany for decades, on the assumption that infrastructure, industry, and security now demand broad state investment.

B. Australia Ties AI to Power and Water: The government announced the creation of an AI office at the heart of the prime minister's department, tasked with coordinating policy and standards across ministries. In parallel, large data centers will be required to meet rules on siting, water consumption, and their contribution to the energy system. The move shows that AI policy is no longer only about models, safety, and privacy—but about land, electricity, and the physical resources on which the digital economy rests.

C. China Catches the Booster: China succeeded for the first time in recovering an orbital launcher's booster using a net mounted on a maritime platform. The system is designed to enable component reuse, cut costs, and raise launch cadence. This is still a first test rather than a proven commercial capability—but it narrows the gap with American firms such as SpaceX and strengthens China's ability to deploy large satellite constellations for communications, intelligence, and civilian services.

D. Europe Wins a Round Against Big Tech: The EU's court rejected Apple's challenge to its designation as a gatekeeper in operating systems and app stores. The ruling strengthens European authorities' power to compel large firms to open their systems to competitors and expand users' choices. The fight is not only over commercial competition, but over Europe's ability to set independent rules for companies whose reach and revenues exceed those of many states.

Crises and Domestic Politics

A. Cuba Goes Dark for the Third Time: The national power grid collapsed for the third time in nine days, leaving most of the island without electricity. Fuel shortages, aging plants, and missing spare parts shut down transport, hit health services, and—in response —sparked local protests. The regime lays most of the blame on American pressure, while the public also lives with the consequences of years of neglect and mismanagement.

B. Spain's Fire Outruns the Fire Season: The mega-fire in Almería claimed the lives of 13 people and consumed some 7,000 hectares of forest and farmland. Heat, drought, and strong winds accelerated its spread and complicated evacuations. Beyond the local disaster—part of a fire pattern that now recurs every year—the blaze underscores the cumulative toll of extreme climate events on infrastructure, on tourism, and on southern European states' ability to protect older, dispersed populations.

“Surely goodness and mercy shall follow” (Psalm 23).

The Geopolitics Lab Team