A fragmented international system

The week in brief

This week saw several shifts in regional alignments: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed a mutual defense agreement; Russia and Syria redefined the terms of Russia’s presence in the country; and China held, for the first time, a joint naval exercise with another country east of Taiwan. Meanwhile, several ongoing trends entered a new phase: Türkiye moved to place the end of its conflict with the PKK on a legal footing; the Democratic Republic of the Congo stepped up efforts to retain more mineral processing within its borders; and Taiwan and several European countries took more practical steps to prepare for disruptions to communications and energy supplies.

Geopolitical Dynamics

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a mutual defense agreement: The agreement, signed in Mecca, stipulates that an armed attack against any one of the three countries will be considered an attack against them all. The nature of the assistance provided in such a case, however, will be determined through consultations among the parties. The agreement gives Saudi Arabia an additional layer of regional deterrence, strengthens security ties among the three countries and leaves open the possibility of other states joining in the future.

Russia retained its presence in Syria, but under new terms: After approximately eighteen months of negotiations, Moscow and Damascus reached an agreement on the future of the Russian facilities in Tartus and Khmeimim. Syria assumed responsibility for managing the civilian components, while the military facilities will shift toward joint operations and training.

A Chinese missile test deepened divisions in the Pacific: China’s test of a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead raised concerns among Pacific Island states. The region’s foreign ministers failed to agree on a joint statement of condemnation, partly because countries aligned with Beijing opposed it. The episode illustrated how competition between China and the West is making it increasingly difficult for the region’s countries to maintain a common position in response to expanding Chinese military activity.

Security and Threats

China and Indonesia held a naval exercise east of Taiwan: This was the first time China had conducted a joint naval exercise with another country’s military in the area. Indonesia described it as a routine transit drill, while Taiwan officials acknowledged it had no direct military impact. Nevertheless, another country's participation added diplomatic significance and helped Beijing portray its presence east of Taiwan as legitimate international activity.

Taiwan deliberately slowed mobile internet speeds: As part of its annual resilience exercises, the authorities deliberately reduced mobile connectivity across a wide area for the first time, simulating damage to communications infrastructure caused by an attack or natural disaster. Other essential services continued to operate. The exercise expanded Taiwan’s preparations beyond a purely military scenario to examine how the population and civilian services would function during a major communications disruption.

Economy, Technology and Trade

The Democratic Republic of the Congo banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates: The government sought to compel companies to process a greater share of these raw materials domestically, allowing the country to retain more of their economic value. The DRC is the world’s largest supplier of cobalt and a major source of copper, making the decision directly relevant to supply chains for batteries, electronics and other industries.

Drought along the Danube became an energy security risk: Low water levels impaired the ability to cool power plants in the region and forced Hungary’s Paks Nuclear Power Plant to operate at only a fraction of its generating capacity. The government began physical works to raise water levels near the plant. The episode demonstrated how a prolonged drought can evolve from an environmental problem into a direct constraint on electricity generation and strategic infrastructure.

Domestic Politics and Crises

Türkiye moved from reconciliation with the PKK to legislation: Parliament approved a framework allowing some members of the organization to return and reintegrate after the PKK began disarming. The law does not resolve the broader disputes over Kurdish rights or the status of the organization’s leader, Abdullah Öcalan, and it has faced opposition from military veterans and families of fallen soldiers. Nevertheless, its passage moves the process beyond declarations and partial disarmament toward a legal framework that can support the reintegration of former PKK members.

The earthquake became the first major test for Colombia’s new president: A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck western Colombia only days after the president took office. Hundreds were killed, thousands were injured, and homes and infrastructure sustained extensive damage. The disaster placed immediate spending and emergency-response demands on a new government elected on a platform that included reducing public expenditure and shrinking the state apparatus.

“Surely goodness and mercy shall follow” (Psalm 23).

The Geopolitics Lab Team